Bitcoin chart (30th Aug 2021)
Keeping it simple, let’s study the trend and price action of Bitcoin’s daily chart:
Item A: Strong buying rally with low selling volume since 21st July 2021 where majority of daily candles are in the green.
Item B: Rally managed to push above both the downtrend line and USD41k resistance without much resistance.
Item C: It got rejected at the USD50k resistance but with minor selling, and continued to maintain its price action around USD47k – 48k without much volatility.
Item D: Previously, Bitcoin faced heavy rejection at USD50k which then knocked it down to USD30k. At present, it is a much better sign that the price action is hovering just below USD50k. It’s forming an ascending triangle which usually means there’s less selling volume. Bitcoin may be waiting for a surge in buying volume and/or a bullish catalyst before it can break above this resistance. If it does that and the chart maintains above USD50k, the next major resistance to watch out for is at USD59k.
Should you enter now?
As mentioned, the cryptocurrency market still lacks regulation and is seen by some investors as a tool for gambling. With Bitcoin, those who are familiar with its fundamentals and believe in it (due to its history, market cap, and the fact that it isn’t governed by any individual or private entity) invest with the confidence knowing that it will appreciate in value as its market cap grows and its supply becomes more scarce in the future. As always, invest only with capital that you’re able to part away with. Practice good risk management with your money so that you won’t involve much of your emotions.
Right when I’m drafting this post, Bitcoin is around USD49k. It’s better to wait for it to break above the USD50k resistance and have confirmation that there isn’t much selling volume following that moment. If you enter now, you may enjoy a bit more profit shall Bitcoin continue its rally. BUT what if it gets rejected at this USD50k resistance be it from a bearish news or lack of investor confidence? It’s better to get in and ride the wave when Bitcoin shows bullish signals. At least, when you decide to take profits you will be doing it during an upward trend, which is less tricky compared to it moving sideways.
Profit-taking / when to sell
Bullish scenario: The other major resistance levels to watch out for are USD59k and 65k. If Bitcoin approaches these levels, you may take partial profit, withdraw your initial investment (so that you’re investing only with your profit), or take full profit if you’re certain that Bitcoin will dip heavily.
Bearish scenario: If you’ve invested near USD50k and Bitcoin proceeds to dump, you should wait it out if you’re investing for the long-term. Remember to invest only with capital that you can part away with. I discourage short-term trades in cryptocurrency as pump and dumps will happen and are unpredictable. The worst that can happen when you trade short-term is that a dump may trigger your stop-loss, and shortly after that the price pumps upward again without you entering the market. This may cause you to take your trades too personally and emotionally, leading to more reckless trades.
I can’t stress enough that any retail investor should treat Bitcoin as you would gambling. Even in gambling, you should practice strict risk management with your money. The risk in Bitcoin is usually in the pump and dump actions. To overcome this, I highly encourage investing into Bitcoin for the long-term. Again, if you’re familiar with the fundamentals of Bitcoin and studied its 12-year chart, you may have confidence that this cryptocurrency still has plenty of room to grow in value.