Category Archives: Cryptocurrency

Is Bitcoin Rallying to a New High?

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Not long ago, I blogged about Bitcoin’s recovery and how retail investors could invest/profit during such a scenario. As of 30th September 2021, Bitcoin’s (BTC) attempt to break the USD50k resistance came with a very strong buy volume. As always, anything can happen in the cryptocurrency market and investors shouldn’t be surprised if there’s a sudden dip in BTC’s price action the next day — our strategy here is to play the long-term game while we buy/sell BTC during a bull rally.

Bitcoin looking good (for now)

It has been proven from time to time that unlike the stock market or forex, Bitcoin will not react to major news half of the time — there were instances where BTC continued to be bullish despite the release of severely negative press, and vice versa. Given this characteristic of BTC’s, I shall only focus on the technical analysis of its charts because that’s the closest we can get into studying BTC’s price action. Hence, we shall take a look at its latest chart (8th October 2021) on the daily timeframe:

Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart as of 8th October 2021.

Item A: On 23rd July 2021, BTC started a convincing bull rally that broke above its EMA20, EMA50, and then EMA200 resistances before a minor breather.

Item B: BTC carried on to break above its USD40k resistance without any effort, and this run continued to reach just above its USD50k resistance before meeting heavy rejection at USD52k (probably investors taking profit after the bull rally from USD30k).

Item C: It’s natural that after such a strong rally upward, its price action would go into some sort of a correction. BTC did just that and found support at USD40k and its EMA200 line, which gives us a clear higher-low from USD30k, and is forming what seems to be the initial stages of an uptrend pattern.

Item D: This time around on 5th October 2021, BTC managed to break above its USD50k major resistance without much of an effort, and with majority strong green candles. If it’s able to turn this resistance into a support, then that would be a good sign of things to come. The next major resistance would be at USD60k where we can expect to see BTC get rejected more than once. And if it successfully converts USD60k into a new support, that’s when we may see a rally to a new all-time-high.

How should I invest from here?

As always with Bitcoin, I suggest that the simplest form of investing into this market would be to plan for long-term gains. Trading over the short to mid-term can be very challenging especially with its volatility and unpredictability of pumps and dumps happening every now and then.

At current prices, you can invest with a small portion of your capital that you won’t be touching over the long-term. Keep doing this whenever BTC conquers a major resistance level and turns it into a support, while its chart shows a clear uptrend with higher-lows and higher-highs, especially on the weekly timeframe chart. Again, it’s better to invest while the chart is on a bull rally so that you have the choice of withdrawing profits and/or your initial investment capital.

The same goes with those who have been invested in BTC at much lower prices. It’s advisable to at least withdraw your initial capital and let your profits continue to do the investing, while you allocate that initial capital into other forms of investment.

If BTC happens to dip all of a sudden and your portfolio is in the red because of this, just remind yourself that you’re invested for the long run. After all, BTC has proven to have strongly risen in value over the past many years despite its very volatile nature.

Is Bitcoin recovering?

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Bitcoin / USD Tether daily chart as of 30th Aug 2021.

Bitcoin chart (30th Aug 2021)

Keeping it simple, let’s study the trend and price action of Bitcoin’s daily chart:

Item A: Strong buying rally with low selling volume since 21st July 2021 where majority of daily candles are in the green.

Item B: Rally managed to push above both the downtrend line and USD41k resistance without much resistance.

Item C: It got rejected at the USD50k resistance but with minor selling, and continued to maintain its price action around USD47k – 48k without much volatility.

Item D: Previously, Bitcoin faced heavy rejection at USD50k which then knocked it down to USD30k. At present, it is a much better sign that the price action is hovering just below USD50k. It’s forming an ascending triangle which usually means there’s less selling volume. Bitcoin may be waiting for a surge in buying volume and/or a bullish catalyst before it can break above this resistance. If it does that and the chart maintains above USD50k, the next major resistance to watch out for is at USD59k.

Should you enter now?

As mentioned, the cryptocurrency market still lacks regulation and is seen by some investors as a tool for gambling. With Bitcoin, those who are familiar with its fundamentals and believe in it (due to its history, market cap, and the fact that it isn’t governed by any individual or private entity) invest with the confidence knowing that it will appreciate in value as its market cap grows and its supply becomes more scarce in the future. As always, invest only with capital that you’re able to part away with. Practice good risk management with your money so that you won’t involve much of your emotions.

Right when I’m drafting this post, Bitcoin is around USD49k. It’s better to wait for it to break above the USD50k resistance and have confirmation that there isn’t much selling volume following that moment. If you enter now, you may enjoy a bit more profit shall Bitcoin continue its rally. BUT what if it gets rejected at this USD50k resistance be it from a bearish news or lack of investor confidence? It’s better to get in and ride the wave when Bitcoin shows bullish signals. At least, when you decide to take profits you will be doing it during an upward trend, which is less tricky compared to it moving sideways.

Profit-taking / when to sell

Bullish scenario: The other major resistance levels to watch out for are USD59k and 65k. If Bitcoin approaches these levels, you may take partial profit, withdraw your initial investment (so that you’re investing only with your profit), or take full profit if you’re certain that Bitcoin will dip heavily.

Bearish scenario: If you’ve invested near USD50k and Bitcoin proceeds to dump, you should wait it out if you’re investing for the long-term. Remember to invest only with capital that you can part away with. I discourage short-term trades in cryptocurrency as pump and dumps will happen and are unpredictable. The worst that can happen when you trade short-term is that a dump may trigger your stop-loss, and shortly after that the price pumps upward again without you entering the market. This may cause you to take your trades too personally and emotionally, leading to more reckless trades.

Conclusion

I can’t stress enough that any retail investor should treat Bitcoin as you would gambling. Even in gambling, you should practice strict risk management with your money. The risk in Bitcoin is usually in the pump and dump actions. To overcome this, I highly encourage investing into Bitcoin for the long-term. Again, if you’re familiar with the fundamentals of Bitcoin and studied its 12-year chart, you may have confidence that this cryptocurrency still has plenty of room to grow in value.